Author: Dr. Toomaj Arian*
Israel attacked the Islamic Republic of Iran on June 12, 2025, and almost destroyed all of its nuclear facilities and missile manufacturing facilities. This war lasted 12 days and became known as the 12-Day War.
Now that more than two weeks have passed since the end of this war, a clearer picture of this war can be obtained.
It all started on October 7, 2023. On this day, Hamas attacked Israeli territory from Gaza, killing more than 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostages.
This attack was planned and carried out with the consent of the Islamic Republic and was exactly similar to the attack by Hezbollah of Lebanon on Israel in 2006. That attack was also planned by the Islamic Republic.
Before October 7, 2023, Israel’s policy was one of containment. This meant that it monitored the proxy forces of the Islamic Republic around it, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, and struck them when necessary.
But October 7 targeted Israeli life, and the policy of containing Israel changed to a policy of eliminating enemies.
Israel initially destroyed Hamas and Islamic Jihad and assassinated all of their leaders. Then it went after Hezbollah in Lebanon and killed all of its first, second, and third-ranking leaders, leaving nothing of Hezbollah. Then it went after the forces of the Islamic Republic in Syria, and simultaneously with the fall of Assad, it destroyed all of the forces of the Islamic Republic and, in addition, destroyed all of Syria’s military bases.
Israel then went after the Houthis in Yemen and carried out heavy bombing there. Finally, it was the turn of the Islamic Republic, and in a surprise attack, it brought the Islamic Republic to the brink of collapse. If it were not for the United States and Trump, who had not imposed a ceasefire on Israel, Israel would have eliminated many of the political leaders of the Islamic Republic, including Ali Khamenei and his sons.
Israel’s policy now is to eliminate its main enemy in the world, the Islamic Republic.
The Islamic Republic lost its entire nuclear system in the 12-day war and is now in a difficult stalemate. On the one hand, it has suffered a severe defeat from Israel and has no justification for this defeat. On the other hand, if it does not negotiate with the United States and does not officially hand over its entire nuclear system, Israel will attack the Islamic Republic again and its remaining missile systems will also be destroyed.
Khamenei is in a difficult position, and given his mood, he is moving towards more confrontation and moving towards building an atomic bomb.
The Islamic Republic’s lack of agreement with the United States will soon lead to another war in the Middle East, and Israel will finish its unfinished business.
In the 12-Day War, Israel’s initial goal was not to eliminate political leaders, especially Ali Khamenei and his sons, but it regretted it halfway through and moved to eliminate the leaders of the Islamic Republic, but it was too late and they fled to underground tunnels, and America also put pressure on Israel on the last day and imposed a ceasefire. But this time Israel will not make the same mistake as before and will strike.
If Khamenei does not accept surrender, his own life and that of his family will be in danger this time, and if he survives this time, he will have to sign the Turkmenchay 2 agreement and make many concessions.
The Middle East has changed and a new order has been established in the Middle East. Israel is no longer a major threat in the Middle East and most countries are establishing relations with it. The issue of the Palestinian state has faded and no one supports it anymore, and it is the Islamic Republic’s major problem.
Either the Islamic Republic must adapt to this order, or all its leaders will be killed and it will have no choice but to fall.
The Middle East would be a more peaceful and beautiful place without the Islamic Republic.
End
*PhD in Political Science. Writer. Political Analyst