Author: Dr. Toomaj Arian*
Now that we are in early August 1404, tensions between the Islamic Republic and the United States and Israel have increased sharply.
After its defeat in the 12-Day War, the Islamic Republic is delusionally trumpeting victory, considering itself victorious in the war, and is unwilling to retreat from its positions.
The Islamic Republic continues to insist on uranium enrichment and is not showing the slightest flexibility on the issue of missiles and its proxy forces.
Despite the promise it had made to the United States that it would enter into negotiations with the United States in the event of a ceasefire in the 12-day war, the Islamic Republic refused to do so and increased its threats.
In addition, the Islamic regime has prevented a ceasefire agreement by pressuring Hamas and halting peace in the region. On the other hand, it continues to send weapons to the Houthis in Yemen, launches missile attacks on Israel, and is seeking to launch missile attacks from Lebanon through Hezbollah.
All of these behaviors by the Islamic Republic send a message of tension and a continuation of the behaviors before the 12-day war, and have angered Israel and the United States.
Donald Trump has threatened the Islamic Republic with another attack in Scotland, and there is also a will to act in this statement. Similarly, the Israeli Defense Minister has threatened Khamenei and the leaders of the Islamic Republic with physical elimination if they continue their policies.
All of these factors indicate that tensions are increasing and that the Islamic Republic has no intention of backing down from its policies.
Donald Trump is extremely angry about the Islamic Republic’s disruption of the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, and the Islamic Republic’s continued enrichment policy has made Donald Trump determined to possibly attack the Islamic Republic again.
The United States and Israel have concluded that security in the Middle East will not be achieved with the Islamic Republic in place, and the analyses before the 12-day war that China, Russia, and North Korea would come to the aid of the Islamic Republic have been invalidated, and this has increased their determination to attack the Islamic Republic again.
In the 12-Day War, Israel’s goal was to start internal protests in Iran with the start of the war and cause the Islamic Republic to fall. However, this goal was not achieved for various reasons.
This time, however, the US and Israel are waiting for domestic protests to begin soon due to the water, electricity, and inflation crises, and then they will launch their attack.
This new American and Israeli plan has a high success rate and will cause terrible blows to the Islamic Republic.
In the next war, America and Israel aim to kill Ali Khamenei, his sons and family, and the top leaders of the Islamic Republic on the first day, so that the head of the Islamic Republic becomes inactive and its decision-making power is disrupted. If it is in the midst of popular protests, the Islamic Republic will quickly collapse, and in the most optimistic scenario, a coup will be carried out within it.
The Islamic Republic is rapidly approaching its finish line with its foolish and delusional policies. There are still two months left until summer, and this may be the Islamic Republic’s last summer.
*PhD in Political Science, Author, Political Analyst End